Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence has fallen and has hit a 16-month low. Economists say that the main reason for this decline is because of the political debate over revamping Social Security. Economists also say that the President's budget proposal is a reason for the decline because it is again in red figures. In January the Consumer Confidence Index was 92.5 and was down in February to 79.1. In my opinion, I do not believe that these situations should have an effect on consumer confidence. I am not going to change the way I am spending my money because of Social Security and the budget for the new fiscal year. Do you believe these are the reasons why consumer confidence is slacking or are there other reasons? What could be done to help improve consumer confidence?

Careful about what you say online

With the recent blogger populatrity, companies have started to fire people that post subjects they do not agree with. People have been fired for using Dating services, bad mouthing their bosses and the company, and what they are working on. The argument for the companies that are firing these people is that these employees do not have contracts and if they say something that company does not believe in then they are allowed to fire them. Apple, the computer company, is trying to sue two online websites that have posted information about a new product that is coming out. In this article they state that they will not win this because of the first amendment but if you are working for them, then they could be fired and sued. Personaly I feel that people should not blog about how they hate their boss but I dont think someone should be fired for using a online dating service. For people that dont work for companies and post articles, then they are just acting with in the First amendment.

Monday, February 14, 2005

Strength in Starbucks

When you think of Starbucks you think of a high class coffee shop. Starbucks is a well acclaimed coffee shop. Many Americans start there day with Starbucks. If you have ever been to a Starbucks you know that it isn't just a place to get coffee, but a place to relax and read a newspaper or magazine. Many college students flock to Starbucks to read and do homework. Ten years from now will Starbucks still have the same title as they do now. Companies like 7-Eleven and Mcdonalds are huge competitors with Starbucks. Do you think these companies have a chance to push Starbucks off the top? I think so because there are more 7-Eleven's and Mcdonald's than there are Starbucks. Today it is all about convenience and Starbucks isn't as convenient as their competitors. We get our gas at 7-Eleven, so we might as well get our coffee there. Anyone else have a different opinion?

Sunday, February 13, 2005

Businesses cash in on Valentine's Day

“The Valentine's Day crunch is on because the holiday is actually on Monday.” That means a lot of flowers, jewelry and other treats are in demand on tomorrow. And some businesses are trying to meet the demand. This is a good chance for all the investors.
“Money can't buy you love, but can love make you money? Some analysts think it can, and Valentine's Day is boomtime for companies that profit from our amorous affections — including those that sell flowers, candy, card and jewelry.” Everyone wants to have a romance; it means you have to pay a lot. This is one of the busiest days of the year in flower sales. The weekend before Valentine's Day represents hectic shopping for loved ones and sleepless nights for area florists preparing. “Last year, growers churned out 175 million roses to meet the pop in demand.” Valentine's Day is also a time for gifts of a more intimate nature; business is sure to be brisk at retailers. And there are some data about Valentine's Day isn't just for lovers, it's big business. "If romance moves you to make a stock pick, however, don't let emotions sweep you away. You should always do your homework.”

Alaternative Minimum Tax and future generation

Besides regular income tax, there is another tax which parallel with income tax. It is Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), which means if your income reaches a certain amount; you also have to pay AMT, so the tax burden doubled. There are currently 3 million people in America pay for AMT. However, under Bush Administration’s tax cut policy, people’s income increase, so more and more people will have liability to pay AMT. There will be 30 million people have to pay AMT in 2010.
More information please click:
http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/03/news/economy/amt_taxcuts/index.htm

With a big tax cut under Bush Administration and a huge spending on welfare programs and Social Security cost, there is already a big deficit in American government. However, a series tax cut policies will be carried for almost ten years. So a decade later, there will be a big tax burden in future generation. One reason is that there will be many baby boomer generation will retied, and government needs a big money to cover their welfares cost. So what government will do is increase the tax. So the tax burden will shift to future generation.

Saturday, February 12, 2005

Have Fans Gone Too Far

JJ Redick is possibly the best shooter college basketball has ever seen. This season he is leading the ACC in scoring. So why do fans hate JJ?
Fans of opposing teams have learned to hate the great. JJ has learned to hold his follow threw a little longer while running down the court and he is the best free throw shooter college basketball has ever seen. He acts a little cocky, waves to the fans after hitting a big trey but most of the time just pumps his fists. He is emotional and opposing fans find it to be cocky.
But how much taunting is too much?
JJ takes abuse at every away venue. And not just your typical heckling.
Last season at Maryland was the worst for JJ. As he went to the free throw line to ice the game the crowd in unison started yelling FU JJ. Besides the derogitory comments what else has he gone through?
JJ has had to change his cell phone number five times. One night he got around 30 calls. People calling to tell him how much they hate him.
JJ has learned to deal with the comments about his game and the heckling towards him but he says fans cross the line when they mess with his little siblings. JJ has a younger brother and sister and he has seen signs refering to both of them. One sign at Maryland last season refered to having sexual relations with JJ's 12 year old sister.
So how much is too much?
And who takes control of the situation?

Friday, February 11, 2005

Follow this link to see a picture of me naked

If you went to this blog then you were probably interested in seeing someone naked. Sorry. What is it about sex that so intrigues us? Is it so interesting because of the taboo placed on it by society, or is it just human nature that we are interested in it and mezmorized by it? Today I was flipping through the channels and I caught myself stopping everytime there was some girl shaking her butt, or showing some skin. I don't know why I stopped, I just did without thinking. Usually the show was some thing I would never watch, but I stopped anyways. Try it sometime.

Advertisers realize this and use it. In a study, researchers found that billboards containing sexual appeals were recognized 91% of the time, while those not using sex were recognized only 83% of the time. Another study looked at means heart rates during sexy beer commercials and found that their heart rates were similar that of being aroused.

So what does all this mean. It means that sex in advertising works and as advertisers struggle to gain your attention, sex will be used more often. So my question is will sex eventually lose its mysticism or will we always be infatuated with sex, and will the moral factor come into play or will the dollars gained from effective advertising win out?

Majored in Accounting?

According to CNN news, the highest paid degree for these couple of years is accounting major. Besides that, graduates with a bachelor’s in accounting are also the top one demanded. I’m thinking that if we could use the market model to explain this fact. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 was passed by government to “strengthen corporate governance and restore investor confidence in response to a number of major corporate and accounting scandals involving prominent companies in the US”, which made companies in dire need of more accountants and auditors. From then on, accounting major became more popular, the demand curve significantly shift to the right. As a result, salary would rise up, same as we find in the market model, when demand curve shift right, price goes up, and the causation of it was the government law.

There is another interesting fact in the report of “Most lucrative college degrees”. We see that civil engineering jumped 5.1% to an average salary at $43,159, but accounting only rose 2.4%. From my point of view, since the market always move towards equilibrium, the “supply” of accountants might have grown, which means the supply curve shifted a little bit to the right for these recent years. This leads to a result, the price would fall. However, since the SOX law still has a strong influence in business field now, graduates with accounting major are still highly demanded, and the salary would still be the top one these years (although business administration seems catching up, I guess there won’t be any shifter could lead it with a huge growth); the market is now moving towards its “clearing price”, by which time demand and supply are equal.

So what’s your opinion on the reports?

To Teach or Not to Teach?

If you're a K-12 teacher, or have the prospect of becoming one, you might want to read on. Compensation was based on years of experience in the past, and perhaps partially why you see the bulk of teachers in the 40-50 age group, the Baby Boomers who have stuck with their job. Perhaps they do truly want to 'influence the young and touch the future', or maybe it's just about the pay. With a younger age group coming in, the industry may be headed for a radical change and states and local school systems begin to rethink the classical idea of experience compensation.

The new idea on the block is performance pay. Why pay a man/woman more each year if they are using the same outdated teaching materials from the 1980's? If they are not creating any productivity in the classroom, why should they be compensated more each year? Economics would define the adequate wage rate for a worker as when the marginal product of labor is equal to the wage. This theory would be the agrument for proponets of the new wage system. This makes sense, it will encourage teachers to push their students more and to increase standardized test scores. "Teachers in Chattanooga, Tenn., can earn four-figure bonuses for boosting student achievement". Maybe it's just me, but for any job a four-figure bonus sounds a bit excessive!!

The prolem though is that this theory is for businesses, can it be applied to education? Some say that performance tests are not a fair estimate of efficiency because some students just don't test well. And what about the subjectiveness of it all? Who decides what it 'increased achievement' and what's not?

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Fighting the streets of Iraq... fighting the streets back home.

No matter what your stance is on the current war on terrorism--almost everyone unanimously supports our troops who put their lives on the line for our country. There are currently 150,000 troops in Iraq right now fighting the remnants of Saddam's loyalists while another 16,000 troops are busy searching for Al Qaeda in the mountains of Afghanistan. To date, over 130,000 troops have served in the war since it began in 2001 and have returned home.
However, some of those have returned home to literally nothing. This is partly due to soldiers who are still suffering from the anxieties and horrors of war; but it is also due in part to how high housing costs have become while real wage rates stay the same. It is hard enough to come back from war and just deal with the shock that comes with the reintroduction into our own culture. Some of these soldiers though are also coming back and trying to find their place in a work force they have been out of for well over a year.
I for one get pretty upset when I read things like this, but then again I am a soldier myself so I tend to be very biased. How do some of you feel about this topic? I would like to know how other MC students and also MC employees feel about this. Hope to see some replies.

Local Companies Closing

Since I am from the Marietta area, i know a little more about this than many of you probably. However, in the last 6 months, 2 companies (Walker in Williamstown, WV and Marietta Magnetics) have announced closures. Walker let go of close to 400 workers, many of them being my classmates (in high school) parents. Now Marietta Magnetics (a family owned company) is closing costing 125 workers their jobs. For those of you that are not from this area, have these closings been occuring in your hometowns? For those around Marietta, what do you think of these closures?

Tuesday, February 08, 2005

Budget Proposal

As Bush's proposed 2006 budget reaches the desks of congressmen and women, we as the public are afforded the yearly opportunity to see exactly what our nations priorities are, at least according to the president. Mr. Bush vowed in his State of the Union address to cut the deficit in half by 2009, a goal that he wishes to work towards by eliminating "150 nonmilitary programs, including 48 in the Department of Education, that he says have become ineffective." If President Bush's proposed budget were enacted as is (which is likely not to happen), it would be the first time since that Reagan administration that there was an overall reduction in spending, in the area of "nonsecurity-related programs." While Mr. Bush is trimming the "pork" in many domestic areas, he has proposed increasing Defense Department spending by five percent, with the goal of ensuring a safer America.
I do not want it to be thought that I disagree with any of the specfic proposals I mentioned. I have a feeling that there does exist many ineffective programs that are really just a waste of money. Also, I agree with the importance placed on the Department of Defense, because we need a safe and strong America. However, I do disagree with the president when it comes to his tax policies and proposals. I'm sure that all are aware of the theory of the "trickle down economy," so it suffices to say it is my belief that this theory is no longer as strong as it once was. Some possible reasons for this include; the breakdown of trade barriers as globalization takes hold, and the fact that the additional income held by business owners, from the tax cuts, can now be used to purchase more technology rather then labor.
My question to you is, would you be willing to part with a slightly larger portion of your income in order to lead our country out of debt?
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/07/politics/07cnd-budg.html

Pfizer Cancer Pill Proves Effective

After loosing a very good friend from cancer last semester (Marietta Alum, Jennifer Hammer) the intensity and reality of how cancer effects people has really struck home. This entire occurance was within three years after the discovery of her cancer, a long hard fight against it... After reviewing this atricle, it seems that we may be on the right track in order to fight cancer overall. Many people have stated that the drug companies have cures for cancer and AIDS but are not releasing it, to help secure their business future. I fell this is complete hogwash. If there was a cure held today by a company, their benefit to being the sole firm brining this treatment to the WORLD population would be unreal. So great, that this would probably be one of the highest and most widly used drugs in the US. (Cancer has now taken the #1 Cause of Death in the USA) Why would a company withhold from releasing such a product?

Axonyx's Alzheimer's Treatment Falls Short

Axonyx, a US based pharmaceutical company released that a new drug developed will not live up to its expected and promised goals. It seems that rather than slowing the disease down, it only provides an "improvement in memory" however after testing using a Placebo, it seems that this drug does not even slow down Alzheimer's disease... With the average population aging as quickly as it ever has, I feel that if a drug company was to harness a sure proven method to slow the disease down, or provide a possible cure, they will gain a huge market share immediately...

Judgment Day For The FDA

With the recent yanking of Vioxx from store shelves, the FDA now seems to be looking into the Cox-2 inhibitors (common pain killers). Merk Co. the maker of Vioxx saw their stock prices fall greatly after the press release of their top rated drug being directly related to serious health problems. Pfizer, one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world will be in the center of the stage standing behind their products Celebrex and Bextra. It will be very interesting to see how this effects the current medications offered for pain treatments in the future...

Monday, February 07, 2005

Jose Canseco's New Book

I find it hard to believe that a man with a public disobedience record such as Jose Canseco has the right to accuse people of steroid use. In Canseco's new book he explains how Major League Baseball has such a huge steroid problem along with many accusations about other players using steroids. I am one to believe that this might be used as another attention getter to keep a washed up, criminally troubled Jose Canseco in the news. In his book, Canseco says MLB sluggers like Mark McGuire and Rafael Palmiero obtained and used steroids under the close supervision of Canseco. In the long run Canseco's comments can only hurt him. Sure he might sell more books, but his relationships with a lot of his close friends, that a MLB stars past an present, will be severed. Do you think Canseco's book is helpful or harmful for the MLB? Do you feel Canseco's book will have a positiv or negative effect,if any, on the MLB?

Stiffening Up Medicare Benefits

Nobody likes to pay taxes, but those taxes help not only your neighbor but you as well. We all just hope that our taxes will be used properly for reasons we agree with. A relatively large portion of our taxes goes toward Medicare among other programs. This CBS News article reports that under a new law passed Medicare benefits will cover Viagra, the sensational new drug that helps men with Erectile Dysfunction. As with all drugs, Viagra will only be “prescribed only when medically necessary, and in limited quantities.” Unlike the users of Viagra I find this very hard to swallow.
It seems very important in Healthcare, as well as in anything, to examine the economic benefits of a decision. All I can hope is that the utmost scrutiny and economic evaluation will be placed on any decision involving the drug. Doctors as well as patients need to remember that every decision has an opportunity cost. Unfortunately every decision will not be a pleasant one. This one should be very easy though.

Here to Stay

Not too long ago there was a merger between Aetna and U.S. Healthcare Inc. that created the country's largest medical-benefits corporation. Most people do no like the idea of any one firm getting too large because of the possible implications. As this merger progressed the healthcare industry was quickly taking the characteristics of an Oligopoly.
As the article states, a firm of this size has a clear leverage against other competitors, doctors and hospitals. The main concern of critics to this plan is that with fewer choices among competing firms the consumers will be the ones to suffer in terms of patient care declining as profits rise.
Competition is of course the driving factor in a healthy market but as costs continue to rise and rise drastic measure just might need to be taken. As the article states “Optimists predict that the half-dozen or so remaining big players, with their enlarged networks, will have the clout to force doctors and hospitals to hold down medical costs.” With third party insurance across the country the risk as well as the cost is spread around. I do not want these corporations to make money over the well being of others, but as more Americans frivolously spend other people’s money through insurance benefits something must be done. Unfortunately big managed healthcare organizations that seriously take in to account the economic evaluations involving its customer’s treatment might just be the answer.

Kicking the Kickbacks

The National Institutes for Health (NIH) is taking steps to ban all income that member scientists and researchers receive from drug companies. This obvious conflict of interest is more than just that an ethical issue though, many economic implications stem from this sort of behavior. It is in the nature of Healthcare as a commodity to have irregular demand. Unfortunately uncertainty is a major factor of all health problems. It is because of this that the market for medical treatments is very one sided. The new guidelines to be set by the NIH will help prevent any doctor driven demand for products that are not necessarily safe. The medical market may never have completely independent supply and demand factors but this is a good step in keeping the market in check.

US Airways seeing 'clear skies' ahead

According to Washingtontimes’s business news in February 6th 2005’s, the US Airways is getting better despite since many analysts assumed that the business of airline would be end soon after the US Airways field has had bankruptcy in September,
During that bad time, many airline unions got some changes to make sure they can still exist in that environment. For instance, the International Association of Machinist changed its labor contract to reduce its payment for employees by 12 percent to 20 percent. In addition, the Arlington based air carrier used its own money to maintain the company can operate normally. After all the US airline unions’ effort, recently, Bruce Lakefield, who is the chief Executive officer, declared that the most difficult time of US Airways has gone.
Now, the US Airways is getting start to expand its operations and hire more employees. Although there are still some people do not accept the changing of the US Airways, many accept it and affirm those changes.
The US Airways’ achievement is obviously. However, it still has a big problem that it needs an investor to offer $230 million in new finance. Nevertheless, no matter who is the investor will take a high risk. Furthermore, the airline says that it will get profit till 2008. Because the airline has already promised to the employees that it would give them money based on the profit margin, some of the money may not go back to the investor. The last one and also the most important obstacle that may cause no investors offer that much money is the fact that the US Airways still own the federal government $600 million.

Do you really think the US Airways is getting better? Will there be any investor interested in offering that much money? How’s US Airway’s future? For my own, I think if there is someone who invests in the US Airways; its future will be good. On the other hand the investor may have the ability and prepare to endure that he may not receive the profit as he expect.

Health Care: Why So High?

In our class, the Economics of Healthcare, the topic has often come up as to why health care is so expensive. One of the issues we brought up in class was that malpractice suits were forcing physicians to charge higher and higher prices, which either drives up insurance or direct out of pocket costs to the consumer. The Kaiser Family Foundation, a non-profit organization that studies health care issues, and the Harvard School of Public Health conducted a survey to determine what a sample of the population considered the most important health care issues. Surprisingly, at least to me, was the placing of malpractice suits - 11th out of 12. Of course, 1st place went to lowering the cost of health care and insurance. It doesn't make sense to me to list the symptoms of a problem as most important rather than the source. Yes, the costs are high, but the real question is: what is making them high? A majority of people do agree that malpractice needs addressed and would be for a reform (if the industry as a whole would accept it). The Bush administration stands firm that malpractice suits are indeed a main source of the hgih priced health care. "Bush is seeking a $250,000 cap on non-economic damages that compensate for pain and suffering, saying large malpractice awards are driving up the costs of business and insurance and forcing doctors to give up their practices."
However, a Congressional Budget Office analysis found such malpractice costs are actually less than 2% of all health care spending (2002). I feel that this office, just like the surveyed people mentinoed earlier, are looking at symptoms rather than the source. Actual malpractice suit costs probably are less than 2%; the real costs come when doctors and insurance agencies raise prices in response to malpractice costs. A deeper analysis of the issue is required to determine exactly why health costs as much as it does.
The source for the information found in this post can be found HERE .

Surging Cost for Medicaid Ravage State, Federal Budgets.

It was reported in the Wall Street Journal today, that the costs for Medicaid are severly hurting Mississippi's budget. In that state alone, Medicaid spending has doubled to 3.5 billion dollars. Gov. Haley Barbour said that "Medicaid is a cancer on our state finances."

In the current fiscal year, which will end on June 30, it is predicited that Medicaid costs will be 268 million dollars more than the state budgeted for the program. State officials are warning that the program will run out of money by the end of February unless the legislature passes an emergency appropration. The state has already shut down some construction projects. The state may also delay plans to give public school teachers a raise.

Is this just a problem in Mississippi or will it turn out to be problematic in other states, or maybe the nation, as well?

The article can be found here: http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB110773763704247315,00.html?mod=health%5Fhs%5Fpolicy%5Flegislation

Social Insecurity

Social security has come under considerable scrutiny as of late. The program was not designed to support this many people who live this long past the age of 65. Some may even call it "social insecurity." Many people see problems with social security, and this disenchantment has traveled high up the ladder, all the way to the President. Bush said earlier that he sees privatization as a potential solution to the problem. His statement has caused quite the uproar, resulting in a variety of opinions. Of course, Wall Street sees this as a good idea because of the money that will be pumped into the market. However, one group, Lyndon LaRouche, stated that such privatization is fascist. On less extreme notes, some agree while others say the move is too risky. Whatever the correct solution is, it has become clear that the weaknesses of our current social security program have become too glaring to ignore. Where will our nest egg come from?

The information for this post can be found at: HERE

Sunday, February 06, 2005

“And the Winner is...”

On Friday, a $280 billion dollar claim made by the U.S. government was rejected by a federal appeals court. This case was against the tobacco industry and it involved obtaining money illegally. Recently, the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia circuit reversed a lower court ruling that past profits could be seized as “ill-gotten gains.” This victory for the industry was from a fifty year conspiracy to hold back information from the consumers about the dangers of smoking. It just so happened that this decision increased the shares of the top tobacco companies. This ruling also affected the U.S. government’s case. Right now, the best that the government can do if it wins the racketeering case is to further restrict the tobacco companies from marketing and advertising. According to Edward Sweda said that, “Far from winning the case at trial, the cigarette companies she be worried about remedies, which could change the way they do business.” The government might decide for an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. After Friday’s ruling, the RICO Act sought by the government, which allows a court to impose remedies that “prevent and restrain” further violations was denied because it was decided that it doesn’t “prevent and restrain.” Senior Judge Stephen Williams’s opinion was, “Wealth deprivation is an extremely crude device for preventing criminal behavior. My question to you is, “If the tobacco companies, who seem to be in the lead now, win, how can the government stop these companies from continuing on with their deceptive practices?

"Jobs...They're Coming"

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projected that as the 77 million baby boomers that are approaching retirement will open up more opportunities to find jobs for the working class. Currently one of the fastest growing employment opportunities is in health care. The Labor Department projected a 27% increase over 2002 in nursing jobs, physician’s assistants jobs will grow by nearly 50%, and physical and occupational therapists by more than 35%. There will be a demand for these professionals as the retirees start to use these services. Other services that will be in demand are fitness trainers and dental hygienists. According to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, the average age federal workers has reached nearly 46 years of age and for both the Energy and the Education Departments the average age is near 50.
Do you think that the jobs that are coming will support a new generation and will the pay for those jobs allow for an equal quality of living?

Saturday, February 05, 2005

Early Detection: "Could Save Lives and Money"

Medical researchers reported this past Thursday that the risk of silent heart disease in patients is directly correlated with rheumatoid arthritis. Patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis are three times more likely to have been hospitalized for an acute heart attack and five times more likely to have an unrecognized heart attack. Factors such as elevated cholesterol, blood pressure, weight, and alcohol abuse were not contributing factors in a study of six hundred patients. Researchers suspect that rheumatoid arthritis and heart disease have a common origin. To prevent full-blown heart attacks when taking medication for rheumatoid arthritis, should tests be done routinely to check heart health? I believe that if routine checks were made for heart health when medication was prescribed for arthritis, savings could be made for the patient and the insurance companies.

China has more private business owners

In China’s active market socialism society today, more private enterprises appeared. The number of registered private enterprises were expanded from 1.31 million over 2001 to 3.34 million in 2004. The number increased twice during the two years. These enterprises were mainly located in the eastern coastal region, like Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong, and Beijing. Half of China’s private enterprises are in these six areas. “Private companies are growing pluralistic in main industrial sectors.”

From my experience, I know that before China became market economy, we used a lot moral incentive; however, after China went to market economy, moral incentive did not work very well, so the material incentive had an effect. The victims were the workers in state owned firms, they lost their jobs. Because of soft budget restraint, managers and workers did not have incentive to work hard, some of them even corrupted. I am happy to see China has more and more private business owners, because it will make our market economy more competitive. Although competitive market makes inequality problem even more serious, I think that we are trying to make our “cake” bigger (aggregate profit increase). Even though the income is not equality, at least everyone can have more than before.

Friday, February 04, 2005

Health-Care Worries Keep Millionaires Working

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal dated Feburary 3rd, millionaire even worry about rising health costs. They've gone as far as rethinking their retirement plans.

A mail survey sent to 1,312 people who have at least $1 million to invest shows that even having a lot of money and a lot of assets do not alleviate the worry of rising health care costs. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, employer sponsored health insurance premiums increased 11% in 12 months, ending in the spring of 2004. Separate data from the Kaiser Family Foundation and Hewitt Associates show that there was a 13% increase last year in costs for companies who provide retiree health benefits. Because of this increase, employers are cutting benefits, and asking the retirees to pay.

My question to you: Is the health care system so expensive that millionaires are now worrying about future benefits? Or, was the majority of people in this survey overreacting to higher health care costs?

Thursday, February 03, 2005

The Economics of Polygamy

What is the optimal number of wives for a man at any one time? Our culture and laws suggest the answer is one. Putting aside any religious concerns, economic conditions in other places and times may suggest that one wife is not optimal.

Research by Eric Gould, Omer Moav and Avi Simhon of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, indicate "four in 10 adult women of child-bearing age [in the Ivory Coast] share their husband with another wife." Though their research finds that rich men tend to have more wives than poor men, it apparently matters whether your income is due primarily to wages or due to ownership of land or corruption. Those whose income is primarily due to the latter have more wives than those whose income is primarily derived from wage labor. The study also indicates that well-educated men tend to focus on "quality" rather than quantity in seeking wives. However, a quality wife will come only at a higher price, hence low income earners may substitute quantity for quality in selecting wives. One policy implication stemming from their analysis is that governments of developing countries should invest in public education in order to increase the supply of quality women (and thereby reduce the demand for multiple wives).

What conditions might make polygamy an optimal social policy? One such scenario might be if a severe imbalance in the number of men vis-a-vis women devleops, say, due to some type of disaster (war, disease, etc.) affecting the number of men available. Are there any other economic arguments why multiple wives may be optimal? [Of course, the same arguments apply to women having multiple husbands.]

For another take on this, see Tyler Cowen's views here.

Wednesday, February 02, 2005

Holly-Guild??

In reading another blog, I ran across an interesting article by Tyler Cowen. I had never really thought about the issue, but it made me ponder. Why are there so many unions in Hollywood? What makes the varying guilds in Hollywood so prevalent and able to succeed vs. that of other sectors?

Tyler cites the goals of unions and guilds in Hollywood as follows:

Additional important functions of the unions and guilds are (a) the codification and regulation of professional categories, (b) accreditation of members' work experiences, and (c) the provision of educational, labor-training, and other qualification-enhancing services.

Almost every person in Hollywood belongs to some kind of guild or group, from the actors, writers, directors, location managers, all the way to set electricians. With one of the main goals of unions as defined in various economic books being providing safe working environment for the members and better pay/benefits, it causes one to wonder. Do actors who make 15 million a film and have stunt doubles really need to belong to group with the power to argue for them? Perhaps some of the 'overlooked' behind the scenes people that aren't making gross amounts of money, I could see the point of pension plans and such. And generally the fees one would pay to a union would go to what is deemed at a 'strike fund', well movies are always produced, so if one actor walks out, for 15 million, someone else would take the place. Now for writers and other such varying positions, I could see the need for benefits and no exploitation of the work they perform.

What are some thoughts on this?

NHL Lockout: Day #140 and No End in Sight

The NHL lockout has now just about hit the inevitable, the loss of an entire season. It's sad because in a sense because other than myself and the rest of my family nobody watches anyway, but this will be the first time in the history of one of the four major professional sports leagues that an entire season will be lost. The basis of the problem is that the owners and players cannot agree on a new collective bargaining agreement, in which the fundamental issue is a salary cap. NHL teams are losing money at an all-time high. For example the Edmonton Oilers sold out every game last season, however, they still finished the season in the red. The owners latest proposal was a salary cap that would set the cap somewhere between $32 and $42million(keep in mind revenue in the NHL is the lowest of the four major sports, the salary cap in the NFL is around $80m and the Yankees paid out a record $184m in the MLB last season). The players obviously turned that deal down. Well before that the players came in with an effort of their own which included a %24 rollback of their salaries accross the board for two years, the owners said that that would not solve the long term problems because the league would be right back to the problems that they have now in two years. Even though that is true it buys everybody two years to negotiate. The players aren't willing to agree to a salary cap, but they do want some sort of luxury tax or revenue sharing system, where teams would have to pay a certain tax to the league for a certain amout of specified money that they spent over the league average. NHL teams are losing money, eventhough some are selling out such as the Oilers. The league is struggling as it is and they can't afford have this go on to much longer with a dwindling fan base. Is a salary cap the answer or should revenue sharing be invoked as the players prefer.

Apple Computer, Inc. reaches highest profit and revenue in its history.

Lately, we as consumers have more and more been hearing about Apple Computer when it comes to today's technology. It's upstart of the iPod and iTunes music start created new markets for many buyers and attracted many to Apple. This past quarter Apple's revenues rose and the company gained a net profit of $295 million. They have been experiencing increased sales all over the world; Europe accounting for $847 milion in revenue.

Have consumers started to buy according to quality, lack of viruses/spyware, and a seemingly more dependable computer rather than a cheaper under the cut Wintel computer? Apple has now, however, joined the club of producing $800 dollar and less computers. Although Apple claims it is not just trying to make a cheap computer. The new mac mini, which is basically I tiny box, has already been a big hit on the market. It's small desktop size with great performance makes it attractive to many. Also the iMac G5 (similar design style to the iPod) has been a hit. It's lack of wires, all-in-one flat screen, makes it very nice for the desk. Consumers seem to be finding the unique style more and more attractive.

Apple Computer, Inc. is expecting to open up two dozen new stores of which 10 will be out of the U.S. With a new total of 125 retail stores they expect to gain more profit expecially since the stores out of the country have already far surpassed expectations.

Microsoft's hold on the mac word processor is also slowly dwindling. The release of iWork 2005 is meant to give mac users a word processor and slideshow program made by Apple that is fully compatible with Microsoft Word and Powerpoint. Also the amount of media software is ever increasing and many of these programs can be bought in a simpler form for casual home use.

One huge difference between Apple and the Wintel world is that Apple controls all of it's products. It doesn't allow anyone else to make their products, which it has been found in the long run that this makes it about 36% cheaper to own any Apple when compared with an equivalent Wintel Computer (a report done by Garter Group).

Apple has shown great improvement in revenue, profit, and market shares in just this last quarter. Just how much has Apple affected today's computer world? Did it all start with music and the iPod? Or a demand in higher standards?

Study Shows Illnesses, Medical Bills Account for About Half of Bankruptcies

A new study, conducted by researchers Harvard University, shows that "costly illnesses" cause about half of bankruptcies. The researchers were from the law and medical schools at Harvard. They said that these results show the inadequacy of the private insurance system. These insurance companies do offer coverage for the "worst case castrophic coverage," but do not offer coverage for less severe illnesses. Dr. DavidHimmelstein, the study's lead author and an associate professor of medicine said, "Unless you're Bill Gates, you're just one serious illness away from bankruptcy." The study was distributed to 1,771 bankruptcy filers in California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Texas, in 2001.

In the study 46.2% of the causes of bankruptcies were medical bills. That figure rose to 54.5% when other factors were added. The study also estimates that health-related bankruptcies affect around 2 million people a year. Most people filing the bankruptcies did have insurance before the onset of the illness. You can read this story at http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB110729735855242879,00.html?mod=health%5Fhs%5Fhealth%5Fproviders%5Finsurance.

After reading this article, this finding did not surprise me. Medical expenses are so high right now, and when the insurance providers do not allow for the right coverage, bills add up. My dad is a lawyer, and he has seen a lot of bankruptcies related to medical bills come through his office. My question to you, is after reading the summary I provided or the article itself, does this finding surprise you? What do you think can be done in order to correct this problem? Is this just something that comes along with having a good health care system?

Quit smoking, lose weight or lose your Job?

The company Weyco Inc is making their employees quit smoking or lose there jobs. They make sure people are quiting smoking by giving there employees urine test once a month. Four employees have quit and 20 employees have stopped smoking. The companies owner know has decided to say that people that are overweight can lose the weight or they can lose there job. He is doing this by offering them help to deal with there weight. Now I think it is one thing to help people quit smoking by offering them bonuses and for losing weight maybe offering them just help. But whey you step in and say that if you dont quit smoking or lose weight then you will get fired is crossing the line. As a person, I can not see how there is not a law suit in the process. Offering help for people how smoke and are over weight is a good idea but I guess they should lose there job if they dont. But at leased the company is going to save money on health care, while your job less.

Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Good journalism or Illegal use of information?

I know this blog doesn't have a whole lot to do with economics, per say, but I found it to be quite interesting. I was reading an article in Wednesday's Financial Times and decided to try and find it online to share.

Apple is suing various websites that have leaked insider information to the public and 'exposed company secrets.' One such website is THINKSECRET.COM, created by 19 year-old Nick Ciarelli of Harvard University. He has set up a blog site where he shares lots of tips, tweaks, and breaking news with other Apple lovers. He told everyone about the infamous iPod a week before it was released in 2001 and is now being sued for leaking information about a sub $500 Mac to be released early January, which Apple did in fact release after the blog post.

Many lawyers, both paid and pro bono, are working together to fight back against Apple and defend people such as Nick for being 'good journalists.' They say that not only does he have the freedom of speech, but he acquired the information legally and should be free to distribute it as he sees fit.

What do you think? Has he done something illegal here or is he just an informed Apple lover who likes to stay on top of the game, legally? Could this bring strict regulations to the use of blogs?

Disney Posts an Unexpected Rise

Despite its own expectations, Disney posted a small rise in quarterly earnings. This unexpected rise was due to many factors, but primarily the continued booming success of ESPN, and increased revenue from the ABC family channel. Many of the events of the past year have adversely affected Disney. The elevated terror warnings and continuous concern about attacks on U.S. soil have contributed to a decrease in patrons at Disney's theme parks. While the actual number of tourists (especially international tourists) exceeded their own expectations, the levels are not close to where they would like it to be.

Disney also suffered some more than modest failings at the box office. Two of its big budget summer films, Around the World in 80 Days and The Alamo proved lackluster performers at the box office. To make matters worse, Disney's strength was rumored to have diminished after Pixar Animation Studios opted to stop working for Disney and start working for themselves.

While at times over the last quarter, Disney looked like it might post substantial losses in the quarterly earnings, it has a somewhat brighter future ahead of it. Two of ABC's shows, Desperate Housewives and Lost are proving to be critical and viewer favorites, which will increase advertising revenue throughout the run of those shows. However, much of Disney's future is also not so clear. Many have questioned whether Disney can now create a successful animated feature without the aid of Pixar.

While Disney is quite happy with its unexpected rise in quarterly earnings, the future is quite unclear for a company that is not used to dealing with difficult times. It will be very interesting to watch as they deal with the challenging situations it has found itself in.

Although the future of Disney animated films may be in a state of jeopardy, I believe the company itself will thrive long into the future. ABC is currently drawing huge numbers with some hit shows, and ESPN will more than likely always remain a huge sell. Disney has such a diverse appeal and market that it will adapt to changing times and continue to be strong for the immediate future.

Introduced Bill that allows prescription-drug imports

On January 30, 2005, eight U.S. representatives and senators, including five Republicans introduced a bill that would allow Americans to import cheaper drugs from Canada and other countries although that Republican congressional majorities and the re-election of President Bush are against legal prescription-drug imports.

Earlier On Tuesday, Democratic Sen. Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota and Republican Sen. Olympia J. Snowe of Maine got a chance to speak their own proposal from Majority Leader Bill Frist of Republican. Mr. Dorgan and Mrs. Snowe said that the prescription medicines were charged the highest prices for American consumers. They thought it was so unfair and they were determined to pass this bill within this year. In addition, the prices in U.S. are rising at 10 percent a year. In contrast, the prices of those drugs are 70 percent lower in Canada and elsewhere. Given those pressures, ten governors, including four Republicans, last week wrote to Mr. Frist, urging passage of a drug-importation measure.

As what we learned in class, we know that Americans spend a large number of money on health care; and the spending on drugs is part of it.

If the bill would be passed, here leads a question. Will the spending on health care decrease or increase? If the prescription-drug imports are allowed, then the prices of those drugs would fall. As a result, the spending on drugs would decrease. On the other hand, however, if the prescription-drug imports are allowed and the prices fall, people would tend to buy more of those drugs, then the spending on health care would increase. Moreover, the importing would bring some foreign competitions into the domestic pharmaceutical industry, and it would be more competitive in the domestic pharmaceutical market, which might be a good thing. What do you think?

Monday, January 31, 2005

Consolidation is the new trend

Mergers and acquisitions are the new trend in business. As mentioned by two earlier bloggers, SBC recently acquired AT&T. Proctor and Gamble has announced plans to purchase Gillette for $57 billion. Additionally, Sprint and Nextel just last month joined for around $35 billion. Why are so many big mergers/acquisitions occuring? The main reason for consolidations on a general level are the economies of scale which they create. If you take the assets of two companies and put them under the management of one company, the average management cost decreases. Also, the answer is in part due to the "American Jobs Creation Act, which gives US companies a one-time repatriation of dividends from overseas if they will be used to create domestic jobs, go into research and development or capital expansion, or be used in acquisitions." Additionally, foreign companies are looking to take advantage of the weakening dollar, which may lead to foreign purchases. Whatever the reasons for the consolidations, the implications are clear. For executives of these companies to be willing to expand in such leaps indicates that they at least see a bright economy in the near future; they would not make such large investments if they were expecting a weak market. The information for this post can be found HERE.

Apart from the information from the website, I have learned in my finance classes of how this is true in the banking industry as well. The market has been saturated with different banking companies, and it has become common for towns even as small as Marietta to have four or five different banks. Part of the result of such a large number of competitors is the mergers and acquisitions that are becoming so common today.

If you are a land agent, how do you do that?

In winter holiday, I met a very successful land agent. Though young, he has his own big company. He told me something about him and his company. Several years ago, in the city, where he lived, there was a land to be exploited. This was a deserted land, attracting no one’s interest. The place was an entire gutter, and you could see no reason to input any investment. Nonetheless, this land agent decided to do this business after he saw this land. He knew how difficult to exploit this land, but he still foresaw this land would be the center of this city. And the government gave him free tax for encouraging him. After finishing the whole project, he gained more than $ 13,000,000. And now, this land is really the center of this city. But this land agent didn’t tell me why he made this decision and how.
So, I want to ask you, if you are a land agent, how do you to think about this project? What can influence your decision?

State bans unpasteurized milk products

On January the 26th, there was a new state law went into effect. This new state law bans unpasteurized milk products, which is for the republic's health. Obviously, the demand would decline due to this new state law, because this new regulation might hurt the middle and small sized dairy farms.

First if all, instead of selling unpasteurized milk, they produce and sell more cheese and butter to make up for their profits. However, in order to keep the productions from being contaminated, the regulations require farmers making cheese in the rooms separated from the rest of the houses with a tile or concrete floor must be used. As a result, the new requirements may cost farmers from $3,000 to $10,000. Moreover, the new law expands banning not only the sale of unpasteurized cow milk and raw cow milk but also the goats, sheep and other mammals that are milked for dairy products. In addition, all the farms that sell dairy products to the public have to be inspected every six months.

I believe that these regulations show that people are more care about their health today; they pay more money on health care. Also, the government spends more on people's health, and makes more regulations for making our food healthier. But I also believe that those regulations would decline the demand of milk production; the small sized farms that cannot afford the cost of production probably will close. However, I think in the near feather, the technology will be able help the farmers produce unpasteurized milk with less costs.

Chicken or Beef?

Would you rather have chicken or beef? Obviously Americans prefer chicken even though there is the new Atkins diet (no carb diet). It could also be due to the fact that milk and beef are cutting down profits and growth in consumer demand. That could also be because of the weak dollar. The consumption of chicken on the other hand has actually been rising. Chicken is getting cheaper; average price is $1.30 when it should be around $1.40.

Reasons why chicken is cheaper:
There is a lower feed ingredient costs (supply)
Rising exports
Strong demand

There has been a 20% increase in revenue from last year (beef revenues fell). By October chicken accounted for less than 1/3 of the sales (60% of total operating income), while beef has a 45% of total sales (less than 14% operating income). Basically people would rather substitute chicken which is cheaper than paying higher prices for beef. In 2004, the U.S chicken consumption per capita is 85.6 pounds.

Good news for economics

A recent paper said that "Some of the nation's top economic forecasters are encouraged by the way 2004 went out. In a new survey, members of the National Association for Business Economics say the economy picked up the pace in the fourth quarter of last year, and that bodes well for at least the first half of 2005.
The experts say the tail-end of 2004 saw faster growth in wages, employment, profits and capital spending. Meanwhile, inflation slowed a bit.
Most of the economists in the survey look for the economy to grow at a solid three-to-four percent rate this winter and spring.
Investors and analysts will get a lot of new economic signals in the week ahead."
all information above are good: wage, employment, profits all are rising, also inflation slowed! i think that all are the good signals for the economic, and hope it will last as long as posible.

Iraq election was smooth sailing which means the dollar goes up

So why does the Iraqi election have to do anything with the dollar going up?

This just shows that the economic market is interrelated. The dollar was at ¥103.43 on Monday compared to ¥103.37 on Friday. The dollar could go up even more if there is a higher interest rate, which would eventually draw investors to dollar-denominated securities. The euro bought $1.3022, down from $1.3043.

If the outcome of the elections were different would there be a different impact on the dollar? Well, it would impact the confidence of investors on the U.S. The U.S is known as a wealthy nation, therefore even when the dollar fell, investors believed that it was just a business cycle and that the dollar would bounce back. Compared to other countries, the U.S have very good credit with investors. For example, the baht (Thailand in the mid 90's) dropped and investors pulled out their investments because they were not confident that the baht was able to bounce back, which cause the baht to drop even more. The U.S is very strong and will continue to dominate the market.

There will be a Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on Wednesday, a U.S. jobs report on Friday and then finally there will be a meeting of the G7 nations on the weekend. Therefore traders and the public will have the full information.

Are You Drinking Enough Beer

Anheuser-Busch is the house hold name for many beer drinkers. The stock continue to increase every year since 1994 until last year. Oh no there was a 2% slipp up. Rivals like Coors and Molson are taking their share of profits. St. Louis has been the larget brewing company in the U.S. Eventhough there was a 2% decrease in the stock market, Anheuser-Busch have no plans of slowing down. For $2.4 million for a 30 second time slot, Anheuser-Busch already bought 10 out of the 58 spot available during Super Bowl sunday. In addition for other competitors like Coors and Molson, the wine market is gaining a bigger share of gtowth in the U.S. There has been a relativiely stagnat growth rate, about 0.4% increase in 2004 (wholesalers in the U.S).

Eventhough there was a 2% decrease, Anheuser-Busch believes that there will be a 10% increase to $2.73 a share. The sales for 2005 will be increase to 4%, which means $15.5 Billion dollars for Anheuser-Busch. New products are suppose to enter the market like Budweiser select (by the end of february) and B-to-the-E which is Bud Light infused with caffiene, ginseng, and guarana to compete with other alocoholic drinks (Red Bull). There is no slowing down for the Busch company. Not only are they dominating the U.S market they want to conquer the international market as well. There will be a higher potential growth in other countries like Mexico (Mexico has the largest export market). Anheuser-Bush wants partnerships with Canada, Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Argentina. They have alredy expanded to China (4th largest brewer) which is called the Harbin Brewery Group.

OPEC Leaves Output Levels Unchanged

In just finished OPEC meeting, Jan 30.OPEC ministers decided on Sunday to leave their oil production unchanged after meeting here, as they became more convinced that current high prices are not hurting global economic growth.
The energy ministers at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries maintained the group's production at 27 million barrels a day. And its president, Sheik Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah of Kuwait, said the producers would reduce their output before the group's next meeting in a month and a half if prices tumbled as a result of a seasonally weaker second quarter.
OPEC, which accounts for one-third of the world's oil production, formally abandoned a pledge to keep its benchmark price at $22 to $28 a barrel, saying that the price band had become "unrealistic."
But it did not say what new level it would seek.
"We have to find an acceptable figure to defend," Sheik Sabah said. "As Kuwait's representative, I think $32 to $35 a barrel would be a good number, but all my colleagues have a different number in mind."
OPEC's adopted its price-band mechanism in March 2000 to help it determine when to reduce production to prevent the benchmark price of crude oil from falling below $22 a barrel or, alternatively, to increase production if the benchmark rose above $28 a barrel.
But the target has become irrelevant. OPEC's benchmark price, which is based on a basket of crude oil grades that typically sell at a discount to oil futures traded in New York, has been above $28 a barrel since December 2003.
On Friday, that basket price was at $41.88 a barrel, and the commonly quoted futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $47.18 a barrel as traders expected little change in production from the OPEC meeting.
Some oil producers had expressed concern that rising prices last year would stem the demand for oil and slow world economic growth, though the group took no action to increase supplies.
Economists differ on how the United States and China, the two largest markets for oil, have been affected. That has led to renewed confidence in OPEC that the world can live with higher prices.
The Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, told reporters over the weekend, "The world economy has grown so big that little fluctuations here and there with oil are not doing so much." He made similar comments while attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week.
Roger Diwan, a managing director of the consulting firm PFC Energy, said: "They are testing the market. OPEC seems to be saying, 'Tell us how much you are willing to pay and we will tell you what our price is.' "
Most ministers at the meeting seemed to have an idea about new price targets. Iran's oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, suggested a range of $30 to $40 a barrel. Nigeria's representative, Edmund Daukoru, said he would be "comfortable" with $45 to $55 a barrel; and Libya's oil minister, Fathi bin Shatwan, suggested that prices as high as $60 a barrel in New York would not harm the world economy.
A new price target may be announced when OPEC meets on March 16 in Isfahan, Iran.
Analysts said that while crude oil prices might be high, relatively few consumers had seen rises in their energy bills as great as the oil prices suggested. In Europe and Japan, people have been shielded by the strength of their currencies and the decline of the dollar, the currency in which oil is sold.
"The dollar's weakness is allowing economies to grow despite the high oil prices," said Yasser Elguindi, a senior managing director at Medley Global Advisors. "As long as the Bush administration is happy with a weak dollar, OPEC will be happy with high oil prices."

OPEC expect their decission will not block the global economic growth, but it really does.In New York, one barrel of oil is up to $41 and it has trend to rise. We should consider about whether their decission is a real unhurt decission for our economic growth.

AT&T, who just joined with Cingular wireless, is going to be acquired by SBC

According to NY Times, Jan 31st Edition. SBC Agrees to Acquire AT&T for $16 Billion.

SBC communications this morning concluded a $16 billion deal for its former parent, AT&T, that would lead to the virtual disappearance of one of America's best known corporate icons and set off what promises to be a new round of competition between the Baby Bells, executives close to the negotiations said.
SBC's board approved the deal while AT&T executives met far into the night trying to reach an agreement. In buying AT&T, its national network and three million corporate customers, SBC can aggressively expand into the turf of its regional Bell siblings, who themselves are grappling for ways to move beyond their borders.
AT&T, the former monopoly, has been undone by cheaper Internet technology, growth in a cellphone industry where it has no role, and regulatory changes that squeezed it out of the local phone market.
The AT&T brand and operations are likely to survive inside SBC, which has its roots in the Southwest. But it will disappear as an independent company that for generations provided reliable phone service to the masses and steady returns to shareholders, and at its height employed more than one million workers.
"AT&T was America's answer to Communism, serving everyone's needs," said James E. Katz, a telecommunications historian. "But neither Communism nor AT&T is suited to capitalism in the 21st century. Like other once-dominant players, when the technology changed, it couldn't survive."
Consumers would be largely unaffected by SBC's purchase. AT&T, based in Bedminster, N.J., has stopped marketing its traditional local and long-distance services and prices for these products have been falling steeply regardless.
In expanding nationally, SBC hopes to create a company that largely resembles but does not equal the monopoly popularly known as Ma Bell that was broken up in 1984. The acquisition would vault SBC past Verizon Communications, which itself became the nation's biggest telecommunications company when Bell Atlantic bought GTE in 2000.
SBC is expected to pay $15 billion in stock and $1 billion in cash, an amount based on AT&T's closing price of $19.71 on Friday, the executives said. The new company will have combined annual sales of $70 billion and 212,000 employees, and it could well retain the AT&T name.
The companies expect to generate about $15 billion in cost savings and new revenue, executives close to the negotiations said. The companies have not decided how many jobs they plan to eliminate. But industry analysts expect SBC to lay off large numbers of workers in AT&T's shrinking consumer division.
SBC's chairman and chief executive, Edward E. Whitacre, Jr., will remain in those roles after the acquisition. David W. Dorman, AT&T's chief executive, will become president of SBC. Mr. Dorman will also be given one of AT&T's three seats on SBC's board, which now has 16 members. SBC will keep its headquarters in San Antonio.
Regulators must approve the deal and they could request certain divestitures. The outgoing chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, Michael Powell, however, signaled last week that the acquisition would not face stiff resistance.
SBC, formerly known as Southwestern Bell, was one of AT&T's oldest affiliates. When AT&T's monopoly was broken up, the company became one of the seven regional Baby Bells.
In one shot, SBC would now become the biggest long-distance carrier and the largest provider of phone and data services to corporate America. SBC also provides local phone service to more than 50 million customers in its 13 states and holds a 60 percent stake in Cingular Wireless, the country's biggest mobile phone company.
In taking over AT&T's $22 billion corporate phone and data business, SBC will add a new source of revenue that will offset the decline in its residential phone business, which has been shrinking with the spread of cellphones and the Internet.
With AT&T's network, SBC will gain the ability to sell services to customers outside its region, which includes California, Texas and Illinois. This threatens to turn the Bells into direct competitors instead of opportunistic allies that teamed up to fight rivals, regulators and others who have tried to loosen their grip on local service in their regions.

Is that will be a successful example in annex company in business history?

Academy Award Nominated Films Make Big Bucks

Once again, there is no big surprise this week at the North America box office. Robert DeNiro and Dakota Fanning's latest film, Hide and Seek, took the #1 spot with $22 million. DeNiro is on a bit of a roll as of late, especially with the incredible success of Meet the Fockers, which has grossed over $250 million in the U.S. alone.

However, the most interesting movie news this week involves films nominated for Academy Awards. Being nominated for an Academy Award (especially for Best Picture) is like a touch by King Midas- small films that otherwise wouldn't have enjoyed such success are suddenly the hot film to see. The films nominated for Best Picture- The Aviator, Ray, Sideways, Finding Neverland, and Million Dollar Baby have mostly all seen a jump at the box office as of late. Ray and Finding Neverland were released a few months ago, so their increase is minimal. However, The Aviator, Sideways, and Million Dollar Baby are all doing very well.

For example, look at the movie, Sideways. This is a very small production- a very small movie all around. It has been in theatres for 15 weeks, and this past weekend (the first weekend since Academy Award nominations were announced), it hit the top 10 for the first time, making $6.3 million. A non-blockbuster of this sort would almost never make any money in any other situation- but now that it is up for Best Picture, everyone suddenly wants to go see it.

The Academy Award nomination is cinematic gold for a motion picture. A nomination for a movie means many millions of dollars more than it otherwise would make. For an actor or actress, a nomination (and especially a win) instantly makes that person more appealing to Hollywood, and he or she will make a guaranteed higher salary for their next film.

Sunday, January 30, 2005

NHL Lockout

With the NHL lockout still going on, the season is in danger of being cancelled completely now. Negotiations have resulted in very little progress between players and owners. With the NHL not playing any games for the first half of the year, and possibly the entire season, there are a few economic implications. One of these is that all the people employed by the teams like ticket salesmen, ushers, and seating attendants have been forced to look for other jobs, which there is a scarcity of. The lockout also takes business away from stores and restaraunts in the area around the arenas where the games are played, because there are no longer large quantities of people coming to the arenas. The lockout has increased the scarcity of resources that already existed. To read about the most recent negotiations, go to: http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=1977341

MLB Steroid Policy

Not in any means do I condone steroid use, but I just don't see what's the big deal, and having to make an even more strict policy. Call me John Denver...but I don't ever recall hearing that steroids enhance a baseball players vision. If you've ever played baseball, everyone knows that the key to hitting isn't bat speed, but it's vision. I think that these professional athletes need a little more privacy, and shouldn't have to pee in a cup or give blood randomly. To me, it seems like the big leagues are trying to find any reason to bust and fine these players. The MLB needs to loosen up, and worry about turing baseball into an American past-time, because their ratings are shooting down. I feel very strongly that, these MLB superstars are making millions of people millions of dollars, and they don't need to be stripped of their dignity. The MLB needs to realize without these big name guys(Barry Bonds, Jason Jiambi...etc.) the MLBs numbers will drop even more severely than they are right now.

Coaching Fines

After his team lost on a questionable call on Monday, Detriot Pistons coach Larry Brown was fined $35,000 by the NBA for criticizing the officials. The call in question was actually a call that wasn't made on what Brown felt was a goaltending violation. He voiced his displeasure with the no-call after the game and the league fined him. The issue of coaches being fined raises a couple of questions. The first one is whether they should be fined for criticizing officials. $35,000 is a lot of money to anyone. Why shouldn't coaches and players be able to criticize officials during interviews? We read in the newspaper every day how the media criticizes players and coaches. What makes umpires, and referees immune to being criticized? Another question this raises is do the coaches feel it is worth it to criticize the officials and receive a fine? Do they make this decision based on the margin and feel that the marginal benefits (maybe receiving favorable calls in the future) outweigh the marginal costs (being fined)? While some coaches may think that this helps them to receive favorable calls from the same officials in the future, I think that they are less likely to. To read the article, go to: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1978707

Touchdown Celebrations

I think anyone who is a fan of football knows what this is all about. A few key names may help...T.O., Randy Moss, and the most recent I remember that seemed to go unnoticed Freddie Mitchell.

T.O. has done almost every touchdown celebration you can think of sit-ups, pom-poms, the Ray Lewis dance, sharpie, and middle of the star in Dallas. These are the most well-known.
Does anyone else not see a problem with these?

I am tired of hearing Dan Patrick and every other ESPN Radio broadcaster bash T.O. just because he likes to enjoy himself out there. I am a big Dallas fan (yeah I know too bad for me) but I found T.O. dancing on the star to be quite humorous. If I was that talented in football and couldn't be stopped I would celebrate too. People say that he is embarassing to the league and is a show boat but look at all sports. EVERYONE CELEBRATES! There is trash talk from the professionals all the way down to the high school level. It's just a part of sports.

Next, Randy Moss. Moss was fined in this years playoffs for fake "mooning" the crowd. In my opinion it was hilarious. He was making fun of the Green Bay fans who after the games go out and "moon" the visiting teams bus as they drive off. If Randy Moss can get fined for this display of celebration why can't Packers fans get fined for their celebrations. Couldn't that be indecent exposure or something? It's not like kids don't learn what "mooning" is before they ever enter kindergarten.

Lastly, and my favorite by the way Freddie Mitchell. Being a teammate of T.O. he must have stole his touchdown celebration from his injured teammate. After scoring a touchdown against the Vikings in the playoffs Freddie Mitchell did a reverse "mooning" by reaching down to his ankles and pretending to pull up his pants. I laughed for probably ten good minutes after this display. What I found even more funny is that FOX the television network that shows more than any other wouldn't show the replay of his celebration. Freddie Mitchell made fun of Randy Moss and whether you are a Vikings fan or not you have to admit it was funny.

So what does this have to do with economics? It is putting people in the stands and on their couches in front of the television. I am not all that interested in the playoffs since Dallas didn't get in but I watch the games. Why? Because I want to see the touchdown celebrations. I honestly think the league should be patting these guys on the back. Not only are they doing their job but they are doing it well enough to score touchdowns. They are putting the NFL's name out there.

Like it's been said "bad publicity is better than no publicity."

Safety Sells?

General Motors has the idea that increased safety will sell more cars. Within all of their new cars GM has decided to install OnStar which is a satellite positioning device. This along with a newer technology they call the electronic stability control is what they believe will make their product more desirable to the public. The kicker is that they will provide this new technology in the first year for free, so long as the buyer purchases a new car.

Would GM's plan to appeal to potential buyers work and will the opportunity cost outweigh the benefits of such a risky move?

Contaminated Money

Straight from the source :
"Money that has been contaminated with a virus; it’s a whole new possible direction for bioterrorism. It is a case that the FBI terrorism unit has taken over from state police that involves several cities, including Philadelphia."

"...Earlier this month, Pennsylvania State Troopers intercepted $250,000 dollars during a routine traffic stop. The alleged drug money, which had been sealed in plastic, was being driven from Columbus, Ohio to Northeast Philadelphia.

According to law enforcement sources, after counting the seized cash, troopers began feeling ill and one trooper was even hospitalized with flu-like symptoms.

Sources tell CBS 3 that tests on the cash counter revealed the presence of a toxin derived from the bacteria staphylococcus.

Dr. Joseph Smith, a local terrorism expert says it may be a new application of terrorism, although this time it was used as a deterrent among thieves: “I am not that surprised, this is the nature of terrorism. By its nature, you have to say we must always be mindful and careful of new applications.”

Is this a new way to terrorize the U.S. economy? I think that if this is in fact a new direction for bioterrorism, what's next? Money passes through millions of peoples hands daily. Opening this scenario to the public could cause lots and lots of chaos. If more and more cases of this happen around the United States, people could stop using paper money! This could have a huge impact on the production, regulation, and distribution of money.
I'll stop ranting...your thoughts?

Legalize Marijuana

Should marijuana be legalized???
I think that the potential benefits for the legalization of marijuana are unlimited. Here are just a few economic benefits of legalizing marijuana, because we all know that the U.S. government is all about making decisions based on economic value and the benefit of them. (1)marijuana use for paper production(2)medical uses(3)stop black market and reduce crime(4)save well over 50 billion for tax payers. Those are just a few reasons why the United States should legalize marijuana. Unlike the Ohio lottery...Government should make a legitimate deal, that a portion of the taxes will be used to help improve education nationwide. Education wouldn't be the only entity that would/could benefit from the legalization of marijuana. I realize this sounds ridiculous, but we all know that social security is projected to run out before the nations youth can take advantage of it. Not to mention we pay into the fund every week when we get our minute pay checks. Anyways, I figured that legalization of marijuana could help replenish this fund that government has ever so messed up. So what are your thoughts about the legalization of marijuana??..and where do you stand?

AT&T buy out

Today news came that AT&T going to be bought out by SBC for 16 billion dollars. Of the 16 billion dollars, one billion is going to be split up between the shareholders and the rest is for the buy out. AT&T has been thinking about selling because the competition has been taking there businees. AT&T has been around 120 years and in the last couple of years they can't keep up. I feel that this is going to be a bad thing for our country because SBC is becoming to large of a company. This is also bad because with less competition, companies can raise the price of phone calls. This has been a new trend for big business to keep buying each other out and I do not think that it is good for our country.

Stocks Face the Storm

Major stock indexes have shown that stock prices have declined and could continue to decline in 2005. The key issues as to why these prices have gone down are speculatively due to the upcoming elections in Iraq and the new spike in oil prices. Investors are nervous that there will be increased violence, that voter turnover will be low, and that there may not be a clear winner. As a shareholder, I would be very hesitant to invest as well at this present moment and do not blame other investors for waiting to see the results of the election. When a new government is being set up in a country, it is important to take things slow and to not judge the entire year's economic growth based on three weeks of declining investments. Furthermore, Iraq should prosper with this new government and there should be economic growth. There are several reports that indicate ecomonic conditions that are due to come out in the next two weeks. After analyzing these thorough reports, we can then determine the accuracy of the stock index.

Salary Cap in Baseball?

With all of the free-agency signing this off-season in baseball totaling more than $1 billion, this being a record, should there be a salary cap? With a salary cap, this could open up even play between organizations. So a team like the Yankees couldn't get more players just because they have more money. Teams right now who don't have the money are suffering because players are leaving for the money. This could really damage an organization financially because their revenue won't be as high with the loss of all these players to other teams with more money. Those teams who struggle financially still have to find a way to compete and get players and this could draw them into bankruptcy. So I really think there should be a salary cap so teams can't dominate the league and other teams who don't have as much money can compete.

Walmart Sales on the Rise

It was reported that general merchandise sales were on the rise for Walmart stores, especially the ones located on the East coast. For the stores that were open for atleast a year have shown an approximate 2.5% rise just in the month of January. And due to the superbowl happening in February, a week later than last year, the pre-superbowl sales are not included in January's data. I am glad to see that Walmart's sales for general merchandise are on the rise. Hopefully this means that more people, despite the war in Iraq and other economic downfalls, are starting to spend more money and thus, helping to raise our economy.

Cost of Technology, But Is It Worth It?

At what price do we pay for the latest technology? We are people of fast moving times. We want everything quick and easy, but at what cost? We have computers that we rely heavily on for entertainment, work, school, and contacting others. Is it worth it though? Computers are always getting a virus, and a person always has to worry about indentity fraud online, hackers, and computer crashes. We share and burn things that we don't pay for. The advancement in technology has really took a big chunk of profit from the entertainment world. Most importantly, by us continuing to advance in technology and making things quicker and easier to access, are we damaging ourselves? Is it good to have the internet for your child to do homework, if after they get done with their homework they can access porn? Is that an even trade? Is all this money we are putting into technology really helping us and our economy? Is it really important to have a camera phone? The demand for the latest technology is out of hand, and what we are willing to pay for it as consumers is crazy.
I feel that "we" the consumers of technology determine the cost of it. How much we demand of the newest gadget to make our lives simpler, determines how much we pay for it. We shouldn't have to pay top dollar for a cell phone because in has a two-way installed in it. We should not be demanding new technology just because we have it. We lose out when we do that, we don't get our money's worth. For example we should pay top dollar for a phone that will get us the best plan and the best service. Simple case of convince vs. quality.

Bidding for Adelphia

Two firms, Time Warner and Comcast, are making a joint bid on Adelphia Communications, the fifth largest cable operation in the United States. After filing chapter eleven bankruptcy in 2002, the founder John Rigas is being sentenced in February for fraud. The operations were split into seven geographical groups for bidding. They chose to auction the company because they feel they are only worth seventeen billion and they don't think they will get any more than that. Companies may bid on some or all, but Adelphia does not guarantee that they will sell any at all. I feel that it is good that Adelphia is auctioning itself off. They were in financial trouble especially since the owner was arrested for fraud. Hopefully if another company buys Adelphia they will be able to keep the company alive, raise sales and boost the economy.

Election In Iraq

The election in Iraq took place on Sunday and there was a lot greater of a turn out then many officials expected. Unofficially there was a 72% turnout. There were many threats from terrorist groups saying that they were going to fill the streets with the blood of the voters. Although over two dozen people were killed and 71 were wounded, an extensive security plan prevented more terrorist attacks from happening. Some Iraqis waited up to an hour just to vote. People who were disabled were pushed in carts to vote. This just shows that people in Iraq want democracy and freedom.

I believe that with the election taking place with success in Iraq, it is a big step in the process of rebuilding Iraq. Many people thought that this election wouldn't go through and many people think that Iraq can't be rebuilt. So I think this should open the eyes of the people who don't believe that Iraq can be rebuilt.

Sanitizing the Super Bowl

Everyone knows that the commercials shown during the Super Bowl are supposed to be the best of the year. This year, a 30 second commercial is selling for approximately $2.4 million. This is up six percent from last year alone. Fox has already sold 90% of the 59 commercial spots they have available. This puts them at over $140 million that they will make off of commercials alone during the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is the most watched sporting event across the nation. A normal commercial on prime time will typically cost around $400,000. Are the benefits of showing a commercial during the Super Bowl that great? To spend a little over $2 million more than normal on a thirty second commercial does not seem as beneficial to me as it does to others. However, it probably needs to be taken into consideration that the companies that are advertising during the Super Bowl can afford $2.5 million without thinking twice about the cost. I will admit that sometimes my friends and I will watch the Super Bowl just to see the commercials because they are supposed to be so amazing.

The half time show is also something people are already looking forward to this year. Not many people have forgotten last year's show. This year Ameriquest Mortgage is paying $15 million, which happens to be a record, to sponsor Paul McCartney. $15 million is 50% higher than what America Online paid for the half time show in 2004. The Super Bowl is becoming a bigger event year after year.

European products

The German cars, French purfume, Italian clothes make up the important main products of European imports.

A european government officers said that the luxury products have been an important parts of china-Europe exchange products which also have created a huge profits by doing the exchange. he also said that the european companies are very interested in trade with chinese markets. China econ markets attracts them because the huge size and the big potential. Because of the huge population in china, the market have more room and posibilities for the foreign company to corperate.


Since the Europe and China has establish a foreign relationship for 30 years, the relationship between our country and Europe have a better and visible future for sure. And for Business trade, it also needs the government have a same focus or corporate attitude. It should push this kind of trade , import and export, have a more smooth and health development

Social Security Crisis?

For more than twenty years now, the Social Security system has been collecting more money than it's paid out; thus creating a "surplus."

Initial reaction: "That's great! No worries about getting the Social Security owed to me when the time comes around." However, this seems to be a misconception. All the money that the Social Security system has collected has been put into the government's general revenue pool to pay for other 'expenses.'

So what does all this mean? Well, when it comes time to pay out all the Social Security owed, the government will have to find a way to pay back all that was taken out of that 'surplus fund.'

A few of the options are:

-Borrow the money by issuing more public debt.

-Raise the payroll tax, which is the percentage of your earned income that gets paid into Social Security.

-Raise income taxes or other general taxes.

-Cut spending on other programs.

-Reduce Social Security benefits.

These options seem to imply that the workers who've already paid into the surplus will incur added expense for replenishing those funds later. Doesn't seem very fair, does it?

Some argue that everyone who's paid into the surplus has, in fact, enjoyed some of the benefits from the governments borrowing and spending in other areas. However, others say that if the government didn't have access to these funds, it would have spent less.

What do you think? Would you be satisfied knowing that the money you think is being taken out of your paycheck every week isn't all going towards your "Social Security," but in reality going somewhere else and you'll be paying for it later? OR Do you think the government is justified in making use of these funds now to pay for present costs?

Congress proposes tax on all Net, data connections

An influential congressional committee has dropped a political bombshell by suggesting that a tax originally created to pay for the Spanish American War could be extended to all Internet and data connections this year.
For details, the link will show. We are using the internet everyday, is that really help?

60 Companies Plan to Sponsor Health Coverage for Uninsured

Today, there are approximately 45 million uninsured Americans. 60 large employers are joining forces with the attempt to sponsor several low-cost health insurance options for these people. This program will be offered for a minimum of two years with the goal of getting insurance to part-time workers, contractors, early retirees, and others that are not typically eligible for the employer health plans.

5 of the largest sponsors will begin in April and May to get health care coverage to 7% of the unemployed in the US. These sponsors include General Electric, I.B.M., McDonald's and Sears.

The employers are not going to subsidize the health care coverage, but with a large enough group of participants, the insurance rates that the individuals have will decrease.

The cost of this new plan can range from $5 per month up to $300 per month. By paying $5 per month, a person will be receiving discounts on doctors visits and products that come from the pharmacy. By paying the full $300 per month, a person will receive a high-deductible plan to cover medical and hospital expenses.

This sounds like such a good idea; however, some people are still against it. This is because if a person is not making much money and is spending more money than they are actually making, then some feel that insurance with a deductible isn't worth it. Personally I think that giving people the option of having a cheaper form of insurance is better than nothing at all.

Tollway funding is question of control

A company selected to build a toll road from Dallas-Fort Worth to San Antonio has a reputation for aggressively collecting money from motorists, treating customers poorly and frequently raising tolls without public input.
Those are among the complaints lodged against Cintra -- selected in December to build the first leg of the Trans-Texas Corridor -- by motorists on the company's toll roads in Toronto and Chicago.
Across North America, private companies such as Cintra are spending billions of dollars to build roads in exchange for the right to collect tolls for 50 to 100 years -- relieving taxpayers of the financial burden.
But critics warn that some agencies may be giving up too much authority, blinded by the instant gratification of traffic relief.
"In some cases, because people were hungry to see something done to get a road built, they gave away the farm," said Alan Pisarski, a researcher and author of Commuting in America.
Some toll-road companies can raise tolls without a government hearing, or send collection agencies after drivers with past-due accounts.
Some even negotiate noncompete clauses into contracts so that governments cannot expand other freeways that might take business away from toll roads.
Just how much power Cintra will have is being negotiated behind closed doors in Austin. State officials say that within weeks they expect to sign a contract, known as a comprehensive development agreement, identifying Madrid, Spain-based Cintra as the lead agency, along with San Antonio's Zachry Construction Corp. and other minority partners.

OPEC

The control exerted over western countries by OPEC never ceases to amaze me. What twist of fate gave these predominatly Islamic countries the ability to make the U.S. jump when they say "jump", because that is the situation. We are so dependent on oil as the life-blood of our economy, that we are at the mercy of the oil producers. Over the last year, we witnessed over a 33 percent increase in the price of crude oil.
OPEC's official range for the price of crude oil is between 22 and 28 dollars a barrel, however many analysts are suggesting an average of 40 dollars a barrel as a new target benchmark price. Currently the price is 47.18 dollars a barrel, and OPEC has already warned that as the demand for oil decreases in the spring, production will also decrease in order to keep prices from falling. So, for now consumers, say goodbye to the days when 15.00 dollars could get you over 10 gallons of gas.
Will we ever find a perfect substitute for oil?
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/30/international/europe/30opec.html

Saturday, January 29, 2005

the high prices of luxury cars do good or bad to china?

Recently, the luxury car price doesn't show a tendence of changes. The high price of these cars made chinese people feel uncomfortble. But the quantity of sales is still in a high number level. Does the high price do good or bad to chinese car market?

Jan 12, 2005. The CEO of BMW company declared that the price of BWM 300/500 will decreased by 100,0000 RMB. Experts said the BMW company was the biggest winner of this Game. By doing this ,BMW attracts a few customers who was supposed to buy the domestic cars on the same price level. Whether the other car company will have new policy or decreasing the price or not, BMW has been the first winne. Maybe this is just according to the Dominant Strategy in Econ theory.

Anyway, the Chinese market didn't show a significant feedback to BMW's new declaration. But something should happen in the futher market. Let's wait and see ...

Stem Cell Research

Stem Cell Research is a highly debated topic right now. The main arguements against this research is that using an unborn fetus is unethical and also that this is a step closer to cloning humans. But with all of the recent research, there are alternatives to using embryonic stem cells. One alternative is adult stem cells. These are stem cells taken from the bone marrow of adults, they may not be as usefuly as embryonic stem cells, but they aren't taken from aborted fetus' either. Another alternative to this is an 'ethical embryo' which has been created by British Scientists. In addition, these cannot be contraversial because they dont involve and unborn fetus, and these cannot form actual humans. I think that stem cell research is something that needs to be government funded because it has the potential to cure so much. Bottom line is that I feel that Stem Cell Research has nothing but positive potentials. I'd like to see what other people think about this particular topic.

State of the Union

With the state of the union address on Wednesday. A few issues I have with the address come to mind. I have watched them in the past and I have made some observations; for one, it is clear that this is nothing more than a political pep rally, with all of the pausing for standing in clapping, I have a hard time even knowing what the president is talking about because of all the interruptions. I understand that this is an important event and is a necessary because it is an opportunity for the President to talk to the nation. But I wonder, should the clapping be limited, in addition, what kind of things will George W. be speaking about on Wednesday? Any opinions would be interesting for me to hear.

Friday, January 28, 2005

Bush tax cut = tax shift

When you buy something, you usually have to pay the tax. Maybe you were thinking, it would be nice if we didn’t need to pay so much tax. It seems like the Bush Administration is trying to do a “nice” thing by cutting taxes. Actually, tax cut are not always a good thing. Our financial aid, medical cares and various other services all come from tax income. The Bush administration cut tax while spending a lot of money on things like the war in Iraq. They made a huge deficit which will be a burden on low and middle income people. And his tax cut policy didn’t stimulate consumption too much, because most of the tax that he cut was for high income people. But high income people will not spend more money because of they get a little bit more money from the tax cut. However, if Bush cut more tax for low income people, they will have more willingness to spend more money. For more information about how Bush Administration shift tax cut, click: http://www.faireconomy.org/press/2004/ShiftyTaxCuts_pr.html Tax cut also increase the interest rate, which restrain the willingness of investment on both domestic and foreign markets. This will make the value of the dollar increase. So the foreigners tend to buy less American products, which lead the deficit in international trade.

GDP and Stocks

With economic uncertainty continuing, American corporations are holding fast to large reserves of cash, hoping for a better economic environment in which to expand. And as the recent merger activity has shown, many companies are opting to use that cash with elections in Iraq on Sunday, a Federal Reserve meeting beginning Tuesday and the Labor Department’s monthly job creation report due next Friday, investors used the GDP figure as another reason to sell stocks ahead of these uncertainties to buy other companies. I personally believe that if I had money in the stock market that I would leave it there. The economy is continuing to grow but that is not to say that I would not sell stock and invest the money in another company which is doing well. I believe that there have to be some people who are willing to take risks. What is your opinion? Do you think that these events should really have an effect on your decisions you make about the stock market? Why do you think some people are willing to take risks while others will sell stock right away?