Wednesday, January 19, 2005

When will this bubble burst

After the bubble burst in stock market, more and more people start investing money on real estate. During the past three or four years, both supply and demand stand on a very high level. On December 2004, housing starts jumped 10.9% from previous month, and reached its “biggest gain in seven years”. However, will housing still hot? When will the bubble burst?
Some economists believe that the increase in buying due to the low mortgage rates. So I guess if like David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors has said, the fixed-rate loans would rise to 6.75% from about 5.70% now by the end of 2005, number of people buying new houses would begin to shrink. No one wants to face such a huge number of credit repayments. Nonetheless, other people maybe anticipate in rising interest rates and invest more just like what they do in stock market. You buy at lowest, sell at highest.

Second, as the price has already reached its summit, it must start to decline. In other words, we got a “saturated market” now. The weakening in November is a sign; the US’s “housing market bubble is at risk of bursting”. Furthermore, job losses and international market would also be a shock. But some realtors say that demand is still strong since there are higher-than-expected immigrations who need to buy a house.
More information can be found here.

No comments: