Kwan Pulls Out of Olympics

Today it was sadly announced that Michelle Kwan will not be participating in the 2006 winter Olympics figure skating competition due to a groin injury. She was advised by Dr. Jim Moeller not to compete, thus ending her amateur figure skating career without a gold medal. Over the past decade, Kwan has been the female star of both the Olympics in Nagano and Salt Lake City but settled for silver in 1998 and only bronze in 2002. After the 2002 winter Olympics she was determined to stick around for another 4 years to possibly claim the gold medal that so many people have wanted her to take, but unfortunately it was not meant to be.

So what does Michelle Kwan do now? One question for good athletes is when he/she should turn pro. The obvious answer is when the benefit is greater than the cost. Athletes who have made this critical decision in the past are Tiger Woods who turned pro before graduating from college, Lebron James who entered the NBA straight out of high school, and Tara Lipinski, another figure skater who went professional after winning gold in the 1998 Olympics over Kwan. All three of these figures have succeeded thus far in his/her respective sport. It's obvious that Michelle Kwan wanted greatly to win a gold medal, but was her career worth risking for it? If she had gone professional the same year Tara Lipinski did she would be much wealthier and probably in better physical shape because she wouldn't have to push herself so much to qualify for the Olympics every four years.

I know one should ignore sunk costs so Michelle needs to put her amateur career behind her and focus on getting in better shape for her now fairly short professional career that she will have. Or maybe she will decide to go another route. Are there enough benefits still to be had that will ever add up to the cost of not winning gold?