Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Do we save too much?

Recently, in ECON 301, an article was brought to my attention which was titled "why long-term bond yields are low." As I'm sure all are aware, the real interest rate, or yield, on a bond is usually fairly steeply upward slopping. This is normally the case for a number of reasons. One reason is that the longer the term to maturity, to more uncertainty or risk that is associated to a corporate bond. To drawl in demand for these bonds, a higher yield must be given in order to entice consumers to buy these long-term financial instruments.
Well, this article discusses the phenomena currently occurring in the market place, the real interest rates on long-term bonds are falling. But why is this so? The author of this article, Samuel Brittan, offers a very interesting explanation to the occurrence just mentioned. He writes that falling real interest rates reflect a "growing shortage of attractive investment projects to absorb savings." In other words, the demand curve for long-term financial instruments has shifted to the left, while the supply curve (reflecting our savings), has remained constant. Thus, demanders are willing to pay less for our money then would be the case if more attractive investment projects existed. What I find so interesting about this is that if we as Americans saved more (as many people think we should), the strain on the financial markets could, theoretically, push real interest rates down to zero.
My question to you is, should we as Americans save less, as by doing so shift the supply curve left and raise interest rates?

www.samuelbrittan.co.uk

No comments: