Does Your Vote Really Matter?
While browsing on the web the other day, I saw this article called "Don't Vote: It makes more sense to play the lottery". Of course, with it being election time and all, I decided to read it. The author, Steven Landsburg, is trying to make a point that your vote doesn't really matter. He says in the election of 2000 when the vote came down to Florida, if any 1 of the 6 million voters would have stayed home, Bush still would have won because the only way your vote would matter is if the election in your state is within one vote of a dead-even tie. And even if that were the case, it would only matter if your state tips the balance in the electoral college. Steven Landsburg says,
"Imagine you live in Florida and the 6 million voters are statistically evenly divided—meaning that each of them has (as far as you know) exactly a 50/50 chance of voting for either Bush or Kerry—the statistical equivalent of a coin toss. Then the probability you'll break a tie is equal to the probability that exactly 3 million out of 6 million tosses will turn up heads. That's about 1 in 3,100—roughly the same as the probability you'll be murdered by your mother."
He also stated that,
"The situation is worse for people who live in New York state. Last time around, about 6.5 million votes were cast for major party candidates in New York state and 63 percent of them went to Al Gore. Assuming an electorate of similar size with a similar bias, my chance of casting the deciding vote in New York is about one in 10 to the 200,708th power. I have a better chance of winning the Powerball jackpot 7,400 times in a row than of affecting the election's outcome. Which makes it pretty hard to see why I should vote."
Does this really make sense? Does he have a point? So if people are so pressured to vote all of the time, especially teenagers and college students, is it really making a difference whether we vote or not? What if thousands or millions of people who would have voted decided not to, would it make a difference?
"Imagine you live in Florida and the 6 million voters are statistically evenly divided—meaning that each of them has (as far as you know) exactly a 50/50 chance of voting for either Bush or Kerry—the statistical equivalent of a coin toss. Then the probability you'll break a tie is equal to the probability that exactly 3 million out of 6 million tosses will turn up heads. That's about 1 in 3,100—roughly the same as the probability you'll be murdered by your mother."
He also stated that,
"The situation is worse for people who live in New York state. Last time around, about 6.5 million votes were cast for major party candidates in New York state and 63 percent of them went to Al Gore. Assuming an electorate of similar size with a similar bias, my chance of casting the deciding vote in New York is about one in 10 to the 200,708th power. I have a better chance of winning the Powerball jackpot 7,400 times in a row than of affecting the election's outcome. Which makes it pretty hard to see why I should vote."
Does this really make sense? Does he have a point? So if people are so pressured to vote all of the time, especially teenagers and college students, is it really making a difference whether we vote or not? What if thousands or millions of people who would have voted decided not to, would it make a difference?
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