Sunday, January 16, 2005

Strong Growth in Germany

Germany's gross domestic product grew 1.7 percent last year compared to a 0.1 percent decline the year before, the Wiesbaden-based Federal Statistics Office said. This is also greater than that previous three years combined. Germany is considered to be Europe's largest economy, but as seen in this article, this large economy can't expect to see more substantial growth in the future with the fluctuating Euro/Dollar exchange rates. The Euro has shown tremendous strength all through 2004 and continues to stay strong into 2005.
I spent 7 months in Italy last year (Jan.-July) and I saw the direct affects of a strong Euro. For us it meant that our Dollar wasn't worth as much which made things more expensive. In addition, because of the exchange rate European exports were down and prices were increased domestically. We kept praying that the Dollar would one day jump back up to the 1 to 1 rate seen in January of 2003, but were never fortunate enough to see that happen. We talked about it in International Finance and thought that perhaps a new American president would help strengthen our currency but that didn't seem to be the case because the Euro continues to stay above 1.30.
I'm not an expert on currency exchange, but I've learned a lot over that past year and fear that the Euro's high trend won't end anytime soon.
http://specials.ft.com/euro/FT3OAVRRCZC.html
As many experts say, this will hurt European exports but it tends to help America's exports to Europe because of the Euro's purchasing power.
I'm interested to see if lagging European economies will at some point slow the Euro's growth. It's also a bit ironic that Europe is hurting itself with its own currency. So the ultimate question remains: Is there a point where the Euro is TOO strong; and how will it be weakened?

No comments: