Regarding the Ghost of Julian Simon
The late economist, Julian Simon, was an ardent crtic of doomsayers who said the world was running out of resources. If, indeed, the world is running out of a particular resource, then simple economics suggests that its price should rise. Thus, in 1980 Simon offered a $1,000 wager to any doomsayer who thought the price of a scarce resource would rise over the course of 10 years. The noted ecologist, Paul Erhlich, took the bet and chose five metals (copper, tin, chrome, tungsten, and nickel). By 1990, the price of all five metals was lower than in 1980 and Simon had won the wager.
Now, you can read about a new $5,000 bet over the price of oil between John Tierney and Matthew Simmons.
[Thanks to Frank Stephenson at Division of Labour for the link.]
1 comment:
Steve, what evidence would shake your belief in Erhlich's view of the world? This is precisely what Simon was trying to do to Erhlich--to challenge his beliefs about the way the world works. The fact that the prices of the chosen resources fell over the ten-year period suggests that we are not running out of those resources.
Finally, please be careful in crafting your posts and comments. Since your blog grade also depends on your writing skills, a little proofing will go a long way. (I detect at least three spelling mistakes in your comment above.)
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